1. 'Maximum Pressure 2.0' and Asia's Energy Vulnerability

The Trump administration's latest move is interpreted as an intensified version of the previous "Maximum Pressure" policy. As soon as the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz was raised, stock markets in Asian countries with high energy import ratios—such as South Korea, Japan, and China—were the first to react. This signifies that beyond mere psychological contraction, a tangible fear of deteriorating corporate profits due to rising raw material costs is dominating the market.

2. Resurgence of Inflation and the Death of Rate Cut Expectations

• Supply-side Shock: A surge in oil prices will push up manufacturing costs, re-igniting global inflation that had only recently begun to stabilize.
• Monetary Policy Dilemma: Central banks, which should be considering rate cuts to stimulate the economy, now face a worst-case scenario where they must consider tightening to defend currencies and curb inflation.
• Migration to Safe-haven Assets: As capital flees the stock market into the US dollar and gold, the "triple weakness" phenomenon—where Asian currencies, stocks, and bonds all fall—is likely to accelerate.

3. Outlook: Volatility Until the 'Deadline'

The market will exhibit extreme volatility until the deadline set by Trump’s ultimatum. If this escalates into an actual military conflict, Asian markets will inevitably face further downward pressure. However, if a glimmer of diplomatic compromise emerges, a sharp V-shaped recovery could occur. Investors must face the reality that they are living in an "Era of Politics," where they must pay more attention to White House social media and Pentagon briefings than to corporate earnings reports.